The Political Pendulum

Posts Tagged ‘Polls



A local school district official confirmed after the event that of the 6,000 people estimated by the fire marshal to be in attendance this morning, more than 4,000 were bused in from schools in the area. The entire 2,500-student Defiance School District was in attendance, the official said, in addition to at least three other schools from neighboring districts, one of which sent 14 buses.

John McCain listens to cheers at a rally

The Politico

Barack Obama and John McCain are evenly matched in the swing states of North Carolina and Missouri, though Obama is strongly outpacing McCain in two of those states’ crucial battleground counties, according to new Politico/InsiderAdvantage polls.

In North Carolina, Obama and McCain were tied with 48 percent of the vote. Only 3 percent of voters in the state remain undecided. In Missouri, McCain led Obama 50 percent to 47 percent, an edge that was within the margin of error.

This is the Mccain camp’s excuse for Palin’s slump:

As discussed below, the McCain-Palin campaign attributes all of Sen. McCain’s gravity in recent polls to the economy. But new Quinnipiac and Pew polls provide evidence to the contrary. Specifically, Pew finds that 51% of Americans now believe that Palin is unqualified, up from 37% after her announcement. (Pew’s Andrew Kohut writes: “There is a clear correlation between views of Palin’s qualifications and support for McCain, which may be hurting the GOP candidate. Fewer people see her as qualified to become president, and the balance of opinion toward Palin has grown more negative since early September.”)

John McCain’s cultural adviser, Sir Pudding McNutter, hard at work rallying the upper class to action as he talks to Lady Lyn Forester de Rothschild about Barack Obama’s “elitism”!

From the kids at the Daily Kos:

McCain Bounce Continues

Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 02:20:42 PM PDT

Rasmussen:  There was a +5 swing for Obama last week and a +2 for McCain this week if one compares day-to-day-to-day. The maximum Obama Rasmussen bounce wasn’t seen until four days later (this Tuesday).

Numbers are Sat (Fri) (Thurs) (Wed). Compare last week, the Saturday after the Dem convention.

Rep Convention
Obama   49 (48) (50) (50)
McCain  46 (46) (45) (45)

Dem Convention
Obama   49 (49) (47) (46)
McCain  45 (45) (47) (47)

Gallup: By last Saturday, Obama was holding up +7 from the 45-44 the Tues prior. This week, McCain is so far +4 from the Wed prior. The maximum Gallup for Obama was 5 days later (this Wed).

Rep Convention
Obama   47 (48) (49) (49)
McCain  45 (44) (42) (43)

Dem Convention
Obama  49 (49) (48) (45)
McCain 41 (41) (42) (44)

All polling now includes at least two days of both the Sarah Palin speech and one day of the John McCain snoozer. Although relatively meaningless, at this point Obama is doing three bounce points better than McCain (and so far that’s the story of this election.) In that sense, virtually no polls have shown Sarah Palin to be a game changer in how people plan to vote, consistent with traditional VP picks. They can hurt, but don’t tend to help. In Palin’s case, this seems to be a reaction sparking an equal reaction.


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