The Political Pendulum

Boring but necessary polling.

Posted on: September 7, 2008

From the kids at the Daily Kos:

McCain Bounce Continues

Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 02:20:42 PM PDT

Rasmussen:  There was a +5 swing for Obama last week and a +2 for McCain this week if one compares day-to-day-to-day. The maximum Obama Rasmussen bounce wasn’t seen until four days later (this Tuesday).

Numbers are Sat (Fri) (Thurs) (Wed). Compare last week, the Saturday after the Dem convention.

Rep Convention
Obama   49 (48) (50) (50)
McCain  46 (46) (45) (45)

Dem Convention
Obama   49 (49) (47) (46)
McCain  45 (45) (47) (47)

Gallup: By last Saturday, Obama was holding up +7 from the 45-44 the Tues prior. This week, McCain is so far +4 from the Wed prior. The maximum Gallup for Obama was 5 days later (this Wed).

Rep Convention
Obama   47 (48) (49) (49)
McCain  45 (44) (42) (43)

Dem Convention
Obama  49 (49) (48) (45)
McCain 41 (41) (42) (44)

All polling now includes at least two days of both the Sarah Palin speech and one day of the John McCain snoozer. Although relatively meaningless, at this point Obama is doing three bounce points better than McCain (and so far that’s the story of this election.) In that sense, virtually no polls have shown Sarah Palin to be a game changer in how people plan to vote, consistent with traditional VP picks. They can hurt, but don’t tend to help. In Palin’s case, this seems to be a reaction sparking an equal reaction.

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